Agronomy-Ukraine

The seasons are a changing

2012-03-13T07:32:00.000+02:00

It's true but how fast and when is it time to plant?

Here is the soil temperature for central Ukraine; by taking a trend line it is possible to estimate the planting times for sunflower and maize.

Assuming a soil temperature requirement of 6 degrees for sunflower and 10 degrees for maize the current trend line indicates we will reach those temperatures on 27th March and 4th April.

But you need to apply some farmer wisdom to the data; from experience we are usually in to the second week in April before the soil has warmed up enough to give confidence at planting.

The temptation is always to go early in a bid to get started and when you have 10kha of planting ahead you can understand why.

At last! The internet has a purpose!

2012-03-09T09:09:00.000+02:00

Last night I went to a seminar at Kansas State University on Nitrogen Performance and Losses hosted by agronomy professor, Barney Gordon Ph.D.

I say I went, what I actually did was sit in my kitchen and log on to a webinar event then listened to Barney while watching his slides.

No travelling, no overnight, I was able to have me dinner at the same time and it was possible to ask questions; brilliant!

My question which phased them a bit as it came from "the Ukraine" was; could Barney elaborate on the implications of applying nitrogen to winter wheat on to snow covered fields like they are currently doing here in Ukraine.

In a nutshell Barney said not a good idea.

Maybe I should do a webinar? Drop me a line if you think it's a good idea, if there is sufficient interest perhaps I could do an update from Ukraine.

Webinars; brilliant idea, crap name.

Womens day in Ukraine

2012-03-08T08:26:00.005+02:00

Today is a very important day in Ukraine; today is women's day!

Essentially it is a day off work when women receive flowers and chocolates and men get drunk.

The day off work runs in to a couple of day so that's the weekend then, back to work on Monday.

Seemingly random holidays occur throughout the calendar in Ukraine, I don't begrudge a holiday or two but I estimate that productivity runs at about 70% because of all the holidays.

There are about three separate Christmas's for starters, then there's Women's Day (men's day isn't a holiday); Defenders of Stalingrad Day; Red Army day; Labour Day; Victory Day; each city has a City Day; Constitution Day; Independence Day (I thought that was a film with Will Smith); Day of Knowledge Day; October Revolution Day; Fat Yuri Sings the Blues Day; Named Days; Tractor Drivers Day; Pig Farmers Day, Traffic Police Day (that is a holiday I support) and so it goes on.

Anyhoo congratulations to Wives, Mothers, Daughters and Sisters everywhere and remember; there is one thing worse than a male chauvinist pig and that's a woman who won't do as she is told.

It's alive!

2012-03-05T21:55:00.001+02:00

Check this out; tiny oilseed rape plants four days after the snow melted having survived sub-zero temperatures.

I would have put my house on plants this small not surviving an average Ukrainian winter let alone one with temperatures down to minus 30.

I reckon this stuff would grow in the Arctic if you could get a subsoiler to break the pan first.

Cold pork

2012-03-05T21:45:00.002+02:00

Temperatures dropped a little at the start of this week which shouldn't do any harm to the plants emerging from the snow.

The great thing about the cold is that the muppet traffic police have to stand out in it and freeze their doodads off in an attempt to extort their monthly quota of bribes and made up on the spot fines.

Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Freeze punk!

Harvesting corn in March is snow joke

2012-03-02T17:26:00.000+02:00

Here is a crop of standing corn taken yesterday when the snow was still about.

There is a fair bit of corn left from last year which will add to 2011 stocks once it's cut and at today's CPT price of 1,900UAH (237USD) I suspect a lot of it will get cut.

No idea what the quality will be like, I'm told it should be fine and that it is common practice to leave un-harvested crops standing through the winter in Iowa. Is this true?

Spring has arrived!!!

2012-03-02T17:09:00.000+02:00

Driving in to the office this morning which currently involves a two hour commute along some of the worst roads imaginable and I was greeted by the sight of green'ish fields completely free from snow.

How very strange because the day before it was white out with Arctic like snow drifts coming off the fields and falling snow.

They say 24 hours is a long time in politics, it also seems to be true of agronomy.

I pulled over for look at some oilseed rape and it didn't look half bad at all, I may even go as far to say it looked the best I've ever seen coming out of a Ukrainian winter for some time.

It was only about 200ha so not exactly a representative sample but as early indications go I think we may have a decent foundation for the 2012 crop.

EU always do that

2012-02-29T07:55:00.003+02:00

The EU ambassador for Ukraine, Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira has been fairly vocal of late with refreshingly direct comments about government policy and decision making.

Generally the government doesn't respond well to criticism acting like a petulant teenager with rebuffles and mumbled denials while shuffling its feet and starring intently at the ground.

"Ukraine has, regrettably, a dismal record on the business climate," Jose said at a meeting for business men and government officials.

"President Yanukovich's pledges, since he was elected, that vertical power was necessary to fight corruption and create an attractive business climate have regrettably produced no results," he lamented.

Ukraine's foreign ministry said it was "surprised" by Jose's comments.

Ukraine ranked 152 out of 183 economies in the World Bank survey Doing Business 2012. It was 149 the previous year and according to the WB has one of the worst tax systems in the world.

It's a bit like saying it was "surprised" that it snowed this winter.

They think it's all over...it is now

2012-02-27T07:12:00.001+02:00

Congratulations to Liverpool who lifted the Carling Cup late last night after a dramatic match that went to extra time and penalties.

Liverpool must be over the moon.

Commiserations to Cardiff who played a blinder and must be sick as a parrot (may be I should branch out in to sport writing).

I didn't see the game as it was only available on the BBC; I did listen to it on scouse radio over the internet. Why is it next to impossible to watch major sporting events despite the overwhelming platforms to show them?

Weather warms then cools

2012-02-27T07:00:00.000+02:00

We saw a gradual thawing last week with rain speeding up the melting process.

Over the weekend temperatures dropped again - my thermometer is currently reading minus 6 at six in the morning - with snow flurries. Nice word that, flurries.

The concern now is how those plants that are poking out of the snow and are exposed to the elements will stand up to cold weather. My instinct is probably OK if it doesn't get too cold and for too long; forecast is for better weather by Wednesday.

February grain exports

2012-02-24T06:10:00.000+02:00

February grain exports will be 1.5-1.6MMT, said Nikolai from the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine.

Apparently the low rates of grain exports are associated with difficult and specific weather conditions in the Black Sea, the wrong sort of snow and leaves on the track that hinder the shipment of wheat but not corn.

Is too much sugar a bad thing?

2012-02-21T07:15:00.000+02:00

The Min of Ag seem to think so; they have just announced plans to reduce the sugar quota by 1.5% or 0.027MMT to 1.883MMT for the 2012/2013MY.

They claim that will be more than enough satisfy Ukraine's decayed tooth of 38kg per capita and still leave 107KMT for other needs.

Last year Ukraine produced 2.33MMT of sugar, up 50.5% on the previous year.

Vodka Mixer

2012-02-18T21:31:00.002+02:00

Yuri the bear spotted earlier today entertaining the kids at a local shopping centre.

Harmless and endearing it was too; my little lad was in awe of the "giant man in a bear suit".

Except he is advertising a local well known strip joint and poker club.

Hmmm...

Mind how you go now

2012-02-18T11:35:00.002+02:00

Travelling around Ukraine doesn't get any easier in the winter but at least the snow fills in the pot holes.

Walking around is equally treacherous.

In the last three weeks we have seen three relegated to the injury bench; Sandy popped out for a pint of milk and came back two weeks later with a replacement hip; Georg slipped off the kerb and slipped his shoulder out of it's socket; I came off least damaged but continue to limp around on a bruised ankle.

It's a dangerous place is Ukraine, not for the weak, grrr!

Crop condition put in to context #2

2012-02-16T19:36:00.003+02:00

Agritel have said "the impact of the cold wave is still difficult to assess."

Truth is we never really know until the snow clears, the first application of nitrogen is applied and the sun warms everything up a bit.

Even then it is a long way to go until harvest and the stuff is safely in the shed.

5.0 million hectares of maize is being suggested in Ukraine this year.

Crop condition put in to context

2012-02-16T08:42:00.000+02:00

There are four oblasts or regional divisions in Ukraine were the crop condition has been identified as being "of concern".

These are Odessa, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia; cold temperatures with no or little snow cover will have done for many over wintered wheat and oilseed rape crops.

As I have mentioned on numerous occasions reliable statistics in Ukraine are as rare as a none white premiership football manager but my sources indicate that these four oblasts out 28 account for over 20% of the arable area.

If reports are correct regarding winter kill in these regions then Ukraine looks to heading for a significant drop in wheat and oilseed rape production for 2012.

Maize seed is getting hard to come by so I think we can see how 2011 is starting to stack up.

Michaels Foot

2012-02-14T21:50:00.001+02:00

Slipped on ice this afternoon.

Actually it was a plastic bag on top of ice, a lethal combination, down like a sack of potatoes.

Honestly I thought I had broken my leg, ankle, knee the whole lot! I was expecting to find bone sticking out and my boot filling with blood.

As you can see by my x-ray it wasn't broken.

Say what you like about the Ukrainian health service and I often do - remind me to elaborate on my near death, three operation, seven holes and only one appendix story sometime - I was x-rayed with minutes of arriving at A&E.

Well done chaps!

Wheat and oilseed rape update

2012-02-14T00:19:00.001+02:00

Here is a photograph of winter wheat and oilseed rape taken yesterday from 30,000 feet somewhere between Kiev and Lviv.

Admittedly it is difficult to see the crop beneath a blanket of snow but that doesn't stop everyman and his dog taking a punt on what the level of winter damage might be.

Many of last winters doom and gloom reports suggested similar death rates to this year yet we went on to harvest some pretty respectable crops.

My advice; treat crop reports with caution.

Take note Heathrow

2012-02-11T09:17:00.002+02:00

Lviv airport 6:30am this morning, minus 18, a foot of snow, the plane leaves on time!

I've just heard...

2012-02-10T00:12:00.002+02:00

Roy Hodgson IS in the frame for the England managers job!

Back in the USSR

2012-02-09T23:35:00.001+02:00

Everyone drives like they are on acid and it smells of soup, borsch to be precise.

Ukrainian fertiliser prices are increasing while everywhere else they are falling; Syngenta are targeting "higher prices for 2012"; Ukrainian government continue to make noises about export restrictions; dry autumn delays winter crop development, recent cold weather makes what did grow look decidedly risky;

The year has only just started and it's already looking gloomy. It could be worse; Roy Hodgson could be in the frame for the England managers job.

The weather in Ukraine...

2012-02-06T20:42:00.000+02:00

...is very cold , fortunately I'm in the UK at the moment where I stumbled across this war trophy in the grounds of the local museum.

The cold in Ukraine has coincided with a lot of snow cover so most plants should be OK assuming temperatures lift to a more seasonal minus 10 some time soon.

Cold in itself is not an issue so long as there is some insulating snow but much of Ukraine's winter plantings went in to the winter in a weak and underdeveloped state so they will be at more risk.

The Min of Ag is suggesting losses up to 35% which I think is high, 20% would be my estimate.

Normal service will resume shortly...

2012-02-05T18:52:00.000+02:00

After a couple of emails concerned that I might have come to a sticky end in rural Ukraine or the secret service had finally caught up with me I thought I should post to let all and sundry know that Ukraine agri blogging will resume shortly.

It's been a busy time with lots of agri-business stuff happening all over Ukraine and Russia, interesting times to be farming in the workers paradise.

Watch this space.

Cheers.

Oilseed rape continues to grow

2011-10-25T22:32:00.000+03:00

Roots developing nicely, leaves disease free, patchy emergence, generally OK.

I have several reports from Ukraine and Russia of very patchy emergence with crops that will need replanting with something else in the spring.

I put this down to localised showers over the last month, or more accurately no localised showers resulting in dry seed failing to germinate or emerge late.

What I have seen is in good condition; minor grazing and a few mealy cabbage aphids but nothing significant and low disease pressure with healthy looking plants.

There is a question mark on some of the later emerged crops as to wether they will put on sufficient growth ahead of the winter but time will tell.

Maize rallies

2011-10-25T22:17:00.000+03:00

The price moved up a tad on the back of the PM (finally) ratifying the cancellation of export duties.

Maize currently trading at just over 1,400UAH (125EUR) with a feeling that we might see more to come as exports pull the price north.

Harvest going well with good weather conditions helping things along.

Maize

2011-10-18T22:35:00.000+03:00

Maize harvest is progressing nicely with moisture around 25% and the settled period forecast for next week will continue to help things along.

The price has dropped recently as you would expect at harvest and with talk of a bumper crop in Ukraine and elsewhere I don't see this changing much in the short term.

Frosty morning

2011-10-18T21:34:00.000+03:00

Ice on the car this morning, chilly but sunny, one of those days when it's a pleasure to out walking across fields of wheat and rape.

Oilseed rape does surprisingly well in the Ukraine climate. Many observers suggested it would not be able to survive the winter but it seems to do OK most years.

Having said that the last really strong winter was 2003/04 so we must be overdue for another one some time soon.

Winter arrived

2011-10-17T08:13:00.003+03:00

The seasons in Ukraine go something like summer, summer, summer, autumn, winter, winter, winter, spring, summer.

Winter arrived at the weekend with sleet and snow flurries and temperatures just in to the positive.

Not a bad thing as it will encourage plants to harden off ahead of the real winter and slow down a few pests; namely aphids and sawfly.

Temperatures are forecast to increase over the week which will be welcomed by late emerged oilseed rape and late sown wheat.

Pick 'n' mix metaphors

2011-10-14T09:29:00.002+03:00

Plenty of comments on the Tymoshenko case, I particularly like this one from John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com:

“…some democratic lipstick whitewash will need to be applied to the Ukrainian judicial pig in an attempt to convert it into a judicial silk purse…”

Decisive government in action

2011-10-14T09:29:00.000+03:00

After creating a grain embargo for the best part of the year then implementing widely criticised export duties, then suggesting they would cancel them, then not cancelling them, then saying they will stay the Ministry of Agriculture finally dropped grain export duties…but not on barley.

Can anyone spot the agenda?

The people have spoken

2011-10-13T17:55:00.007+03:00

Well 339 people have via a Kyiv Post online poll and the majority are in favour of Yulia Tymoshenko doing porridge.

To keep it in to perspective and to remind ourselves why polls are inherently dubious at best; that’s 252 people.

Four people thought seven years was not harsh enough. Remember Nick Leeson? He only got 6½ years* and he cost Bearings Bank $1.4 billion!

*He eventually did 3½ years but it was in Singapore

Wheat and oilseed rape

2011-10-13T05:56:00.000+03:00

Dry weather during August and September meant plantings progressed unabated but emergence has been slow.

Recent rains will help wheat but probably too late for some of the more backward oilseed rape crops.

Early maize harvest results

2011-10-13T05:49:00.001+03:00

Picking up on maize yields from around the regions and they are good.

I hesitate to put an a figure on it as I don’t want to be the one responsible for a bear market and there is still a lot of maize waiting to be cut and the weather forecast isn’t brilliant and the government still has time to cock it up and this is farming.

Progress is now behind you

2011-10-12T19:21:00.004+03:00

Ukraine is back in the spotlight this week for all the wrong reasons with the jailing of Yulia Tymoshenko.

For those of you that don’t know, she was leader of the opposition who has just been locked up for seven years for gas deals she presided over when she was in power.

The US said they are deeply disappointed, the EU said they are deeply disappointed, Russia said they are deeply disappointed, the UK is deeply concerned, Canada is troubled, Czech has condemned the outcome, Italy expressed dissapointment, NATO is dissapointed and I’m sure many others will continue to express the depths of their feelings to varying degrees.

Not half as disappointed as Tymoshenko I suspect.

I further suspect that Yanukovych will appear to bow to international pressure and magnanimously release her after a short period but maintain her criminal conviction thereby making her ineligible to hold office and effectively removing any threat to power for the next ten years.

Deeply disappointing indeed.

Sunflowers

2011-10-12T15:46:00.011+03:00

A three year high of plantings and production has done nothing to put growers off planting with the parts of Ukraine this year literally wall to wall sunflowers.

The price has taken a bit of a tumble in recent weeks with the domestic market dropping 20 to 30%.

Is this a long term trend as a result of oversupply or a temporary blip as crushers are now at capacity?

Aren't sunflowers brilliant?

2011-09-17T09:12:00.001+03:00

Early harvest results coming in for sunflowers and they are good.

My contacts from around the regions are reporting first fields cut at 2.5MT/HA off the combine so probably nearer 2.0MT/HA when dried, cleaned and Yuri has expropriated his share.

Still possible to make money at that.

Price is currently 4,000UAH/MT (360EUR/MT) with direct growing costs of around 1,800UAH/HA (160EUR/HA) means a gross margin of 6,200UAH/HA (560EUR/HA).

Caught by the fuzz!

2011-09-15T21:50:00.002+03:00

Do you remember the Thames Valley coppers sledging down a hill on their riot shields last year? They got a bit of a rollicking for that I seem to remember.
Well here's a couple of Kiev's finest spotted earlier this week making an absolute meal of trying to knock apples out of a tree while on duty and carrying side arms.

Watch out for the fat one looking around suspiciously as he trousers an apple.

Priceless.

Another poll from the ministry of "Stating the bleedin' obvious"

2011-09-15T06:47:00.000+03:00

OK so not a ministry but a toothless quango has just produced results from a poll that suggest over half of Ukrainians distrusts authority.

The majority said they are not satisfied with the political situation (70%), the economic situation (87%), or the foreign policy (46%).

Among the country's most serious problems, those polled named the police (100%), inflation (74%), poverty (54%), unemployment (53%), corruption (49%), general economic problems (32%), political instability (20%) and external debt (11%).

Corruption only 49% eh? Something fishy going on there.

ps I made the police one up.

Maize harvest

2011-09-11T10:05:00.001+03:00

Maize yields bounce about with a 40% difference in yields for the larger agri-businesses last year.

There are a lot of predictions about for a bumper harvest this year and some companies will be counting on it.

I am a little more reserved.

Planting time was very dry and crops struggled to get established with many plants emerging late and having a pretty hard time of it.

Rain in June allowed crops to put on a massive growth spurt and they shot for the sky producing a lot of biomass and very impressive looking crops.

On closer inspection a lot of these impressive 3m tall crops have produced one cob with a low numbers of small grains.

Time will tell but I wouldn't bet my house on it just yet.

Sunflower harvest

2011-09-11T09:36:00.003+03:00

Has started in the south and east and is imminent elsewhere.

Sunflower is a fairly robust crop and I expect yields to be consistent once results start coming in.

Last year there was only a 5% yield difference amongst the larger agri-businesses.

As you would expect at the start of harvest prices dipped to a low of 3,500UAH/MT but lifted slightly this week to 4,000UAH/MT.

Winter oilseed rape plantings

2011-09-11T09:00:00.000+03:00

WOSR should be in the ground by now, any later and plants struggle to develop sufficiently large enough to cope with the winter.

Rather worryingly for the Ministry of Agriculture, they claim only 77% of "the target" has been planted.

Less worryingly for everyone else, the Ministry target of 950,000ha planted is a work of fiction and most sensible growers will have completed plantings by now.

We've got the builders in!

2011-09-10T11:41:00.000+03:00

No, not a euphemism, we really do have the builders in.

We have just moved from a hugely congested and ever so slightly radioactive Kiev to a much fresher and all round brand new apartment in Lviv.

First night woke up to a massive flood in the kitchen; second night Noah from down stairs was at the door bleating on about a flood.

Today the builders have arrived and are currently dismantling the bidet (I thought it was a drinking fountain!) and destroying the newly minted bathroom searching for the source of the flood.

My mate Richard from the US, with some considerable experience of this part of the world once said to me that "seemingly Ukrainians can't even put two pipes together without them leaking."

Prophetic words indeed Richard.

Maize oddity

2011-08-19T11:36:00.000+03:00

We are seeing multiple ear syndrome were multiple cobs form at the same nodes as in the picture, right.

The cause is thought to be related to shock at early formation caused by cold weather and genetic with some varieties displaying more of a predisposition to the abnormality.

Anyone experienced this before?

I went on holiday

2011-08-19T09:03:00.001+03:00

Sitting on a Wizz Air flight last week when the lady in front decided that it was time to reduce what little leg room I had even further.

I wouldn't have minded if she was sleeping but no, she wanted to lie back and relax while reading her book.

Meanwhile I had 10cm in which to entertain a 6 month old baby.

Also I had to bribe passport control 60 quid to let us out of the country.

Here's a free tip for those looking to visit Ukraine in the near future; do not under any circumstances fly in to or out of the city airport, it is staffed by professional thieves and vagabonds.

94% of statistics are made up on the spot

2011-08-19T08:44:00.001+03:00

Agricultural Policy and Food Minister Mykola Prysiazhniuk has said that the grain harvest is all but over with 94% of crops threshed.

Mykola should get out of Kiev more often.

I have spent the last few days driving all over Ukraine and combines are still very much in abundance.

How long will it take to load?

2011-07-25T13:23:00.003+03:00

Ever bought grain from Ukraine and wondered why it took so long for it to be delivered?

This picture might go some way to answering that question.

This is fairly typical and goes someway to illustrate the not insignificant investment required to bring the industry up to speed.

Harvest update

2011-07-25T13:17:00.000+03:00

Harvest is a bit stop start with the odd shower slowing things down but not to the point that we would call it a wash out. Not yet anyway.

Reported yields are variable but seem on the upper side so we might see a half decent crop this year and the price is not looking too shabby either.

What effect the newly imposed export tax has we will have to wait and see but Black Sea grain is currently priced keenly or is that just all the spare old grain they have suddenly found in Russia?

Are they watching me?

2011-07-25T13:07:00.000+03:00

My blog is essentially me wittering on about farming in Ukraine and other stuff that gets my goat.

Every now and then I get sneaky feeling that I'm being watched and wonder if they authorities take the same tongue in cheek view of my opinion as I do.

This boat has been parked outside my house for three days now. Do you think they are watching me?

Harvest roundup

2011-07-18T12:22:00.001+03:00

My contacts from around the regions are telling me that winter wheat is starting to come off at:

Central - 3.0MT/HA

SE - 3.0MT/HA

SSE - 2.8 MT/HA

Central West 5.0MT/HA

West 7.0MT/HA

So what can we deduce? Not a lot other than some farms are much better than others and there is a great deal of variability behind the headlines.

I will update this as I get further reliable reports.

Sunflowers are in the sun and in flower

2011-07-18T12:13:00.002+03:00

Sunflowers are well in flower with the later sown crops catching up in the sun and heat, currently 30 degrees plus during the day.

Should we spray a fungicide against sclerotinia and botrytis?

Many are recommending that we do; my feeling is that it is unrealistic to expect a few grams of active to penetrate and translocate through such a large plant to do any good.

Also the average yield for nine of the top producers in Ukraine was 2.3MT/HA over the last two years with a range from 2.1 to 2.6MT/HA.

I just can’t see applying $60 to $70 worth of chemicals at this stage will be economic.

I would appreciate any thoughts from those who have been growing SF for longer that I have, drop me a line at Agronomy.ukraine@yahoo.co.uk

The Wizard of Oz?

2011-07-12T07:05:00.004+03:00

The all knowing Ministry of Agriculture has reported that grain has sprouted on 1.5% of crops, 5.2% has fallen over and 1% just died.

Surely they didn't just make that up?

Ukraine’s a weird place sometimes

2011-07-10T11:14:00.001+03:00

Driving between two farms last week, literally in the back end of nowhere (not far from Chernobyl as it happens) when I passed the Olympic torch carrier.

OK so it wasn’t the Olympic torch as that won’t be coming out of the UK after the Chinese PR catastrophe when they took it around the world and had to fight off demonstrators along the way.

No idea who this guy was but there was a police escort and support group and he seemed really pleased that I stopped and took a photo.

Maize is looking good

2011-07-10T10:56:00.002+03:00

Unlike the News of the Screws which has finally been chucked in to the bin of obscurity where it should have been relegated to about three decades ago along with those other beacons of good taste and tolerance, Love They Neighbour and Jim Davidson.

The rain has really pushed the maize along and many crops are evening up and filling out (see picture); are we about to see a bumper 2011 crop?

Tempting to say yes but we still have a long way to go.

Caught by the fuzz!

2011-07-09T15:14:00.004+03:00

Regularly getting stopped by the police and paying a bribe goes with the territory but every now and then it goes beyond a joke.

It was 5:30am just outside Lviv at the police checkpoint (yes, they still have checkpoints along with gates to close the road; behaving like an occupying force was a characteristic inherited from soviet times).

The reason I’m on the road in the pouring rain at 5:30 in the morning is because I am working.

Arguably so was this guy but unlike him while I am working for personal financial gain I am also contributing to society.

I am growing food; grain, meat, milk, sugar, oil, at the same time creating jobs, prosperity and well-being for many, many, many individuals which goes towards improving the overall economy by spreading wealth, security and opportunity throughout the wider community.

Pebbles in pond if you will.

Numb nuts of the Yard on the other hand is a drunk, fat, illiterate, work shy, barely educated, bigoted leach of a man who preys on the very people he is supposed to be serving for nothing more than his own personal greed and contributes the sum total of nothing to the greater good of society.

He is universally hated and loathed by everyone, is surrounded by choking negativity, despised by all he comes in to contact with, has no friends outside the job, wears a crappy uniform to work that involves nothing more cerebral than standing on the side of the road bullying people.

In short he is a vacuous loser with halitosis and a 70’s moustache.

That feels much better.

Sugar beet

2011-07-08T13:24:00.003+03:00

Is looking good and will have enjoyed God’s irrigation.

Like with all spring crops this year, pre-emergence weed control has not worked well lacking moisture to activate it.

Sugar beet unlike other crops however, does compete reasonably well once canopy closure occurs.

I think we might be looking at the makings of a decent sugar yield.

Sunflowers

2011-07-08T12:54:00.002+03:00

Are starting to flower, at least the very earliest crops are and their cheery little yellow faces have lifted the otherwise grey conditions of last week.

The main crop (pictured) is still a little off flowering but generally looks good.

We will need to keep an eye on botrytis after the recent rains; I’m not sure how much of a risk that is likely to be.

Disease update

2011-07-08T12:47:00.000+03:00

All that wet weather has encouraged the usual appearance of late diseases in the cereal crops with sooty moulds, septoria and fusarium all vying for space on the ear.

This seems to be a perennial issue in Ukraine and some crops I have seen have had a full and robust fungicide programme so I’m not sure what more you could do about it.

This may be one of those specifically Ukrainian issues that limit the yield potential until we do a bit more research in to how to manage late ear diseases in a wet continental climate.

Expect to see a yield penalty as a result.

The rain has stopped...

2011-07-08T12:15:00.001+03:00

…and the sun has come back out.

Reports coming from the min of ag that suggested harvest was going to be a wash out might have been a little premature as we return to near normal weather with forecast of 30+ over the weekend.

I even spotted some harvested barley (pictured) yesterday in Zhitomir oblast.

Earlier this week I was wearing a jumper and waterproof jacket and just for a minute as I sat in the car watching the rain pour out of the sky I actually thought it was autumn and four months had mysteriously disappeared from my memory.

This weeks Numb Nuts award goes to...

2011-07-03T14:53:00.003+03:00

...Yuri at the Apple store in Kiev.

I need a new phone and I decided to take the plunge and invest in an iPhone, so I visited the Apple Store in Dreamtown (a particularly garish shopping mall along the lines of the American model, I imagine) to buy a phone.

"We don't sell iPhone 4" says Yuri "cos they're illegal in Ukraine." Eh?

"But we do sell iPods."

Which admittedly do look a bit like an iPhone with one minor difference.

It's not a phone. Classic.

Weather update

2011-07-03T14:30:00.000+03:00

It has been raining quite a lot over the last week or so; enough to make a difference to many spring planted crops which are now looking much better.

Coupled with cooler temperatures of late and we currently have a very good growing period.

The dry weather at spring planting and emergence will have encouraged roots to go deep looking for moisture which will mean the root system will be better suited to keeping the crop growing longer during the dry period that will inevitably return.

This is in direct contrast to last years wet spring in which roots didn't go deep because they didn't have to so when the drought hit plants couldn't find water and struggled to keep growing.

That's the theory anyhow.

Harvest has started...

2011-06-20T23:02:00.000+03:00

...in Crimea with the first 35,000MT already in the bin or more likely piled up in heaps in open sided sheds, not much call for driers and bins in Crimea you see, too hot and dry to need anything so complicated.

The minister for agriculture held a press conference to announce the start of harvest but would not be drawn on putting a figure to yield estimates for this years harvest despite having already done just that about four weeks ago.

He acknowledged that high temperature and dry weather of late might have done for his initially optimistic 45MMT of grain.

Here's another picture of the maize I mentioned earlier, perhaps the minister should get out more.

Weather update

2011-06-20T21:46:00.005+03:00

The weather data for central Ukraine certainly seems to correlate with what we are seeing on the ground as per the picture in the previous post.

You can see the full data set at the USDA website here for all parts of Ukraine but the information is essentially the same in all regions; dry.

Rain has started to fall but it tends to be localised thunderstorms at this time of the year; localised as in it might fall in one village and not in the next only 5km away.

Any rain we are getting is very welcome but for many crops will be too late to lift yields.

Who said farming was easy?

Amazing it ain't

2011-06-20T20:38:00.001+03:00

Check out this picture I took of maize sitting somewhere in eastern Ukraine, click on the picture to make it bigger.

I made a road trip at the weekend from Kiev to Russia, all 500km there and 500km back and most of the maize looked like this.

To put a figure on it I would estimate that 70% of what I could see from the road between Kiev and Sumy was in this condition or worse.

The dry weather has affected establishment, subsequent growth and pre-emergence chemicals have failed to activate.

A lot of the wheat wasn't doing too well either.

Top idea of the week

2011-06-10T13:03:00.003+03:00

The ministry of agriculture has proposed to the government that they should increase the basic value of farmland by 70%.

You can tell the min of ag is just brim full of bright sparks sitting around all day conjuring up one cracking idea after another; but how do they propose to follow up on this particular superlative idea?

When I sold my house I proposed that it was worth oodles of cash; unfortunately the buyer disagreed and offered me a price based on recent market transactions of similar gaffs in the area.

Isn’t that how markets work?

Crop Update - wheat

2011-06-09T10:00:00.001+03:00

Winter wheat is in flower with the earliest crops forming grain.

The dry weather has kept disease development subdued and the majority of crops are looking clean with large green flag leaves doing their job.

Mildew that was about earlier in the season has failed to move and if it is in a crop it is low down in the canopy and at low levels. Still worth keeping an eye on though as it can move quickly if weather changes.

The dry weather is just starting to stress plants particularly in the middle of the day when heat and light intensity mean transpiration rates exceed water uptake rates and the stomata close down in order to regulate water loss.

Harvest estimates at this stage are still good.

Farming is farming is farming

2011-06-09T09:43:00.000+03:00

A regular comment I hear from my Ukrainian farming colleagues is "...that's all well and good in Europe but here in Ukraine the soil/sun/rain/snow is different so it won't work here!"

Distilled down to its essence, crop farming is the act of putting seed in the ground, nurturing it and harvesting the results.

Doesn't matter where in the world you are, that's it.

What changes is the timing of putting the seed in the ground and the nurturing and the harvesting but the fundamental act remains the same.

To that end I noticed that poppies are now in full flower in Ukraine as they are in England which suggests that any difference between timing is actually very small.

Which to my mind suggests that modern farming practices and techniques are equally valid in Ukraine as in Europe and America and Ukraine is not some special place that only local agronomists know how to farm.

Remind me again what average yields are in Ukraine?

Local land for sale to local people, are you local?

2011-06-02T13:08:00.001+03:00

Interesting turn of events, the Ukrainian government has said that when they finally lift the moratorium on land sale sometime next year it will only be to Ukrainian nationals.

The thought is that they want to stop the mass acquisition of Ukraine land by foreign companies.

You’re not going to lose any votes with that one but I suspect in reality it will be more complicated if not impossible to implement or enforce.

If a company is registered in Cyprus does that mean it’s still local?

Now that is a coincidence

2011-06-01T09:54:00.001+03:00

Ukraine and Russia announce in the same week they will be lifting their respective export restrictions.

The more sceptical amongst you might suggest the two separate items are indeed actually connected.

I couldn’t possibly comment.

The grain export ban is finally lifted…

2011-06-01T09:18:00.001+03:00

…to be replaced with export duties which I’m sure still contravene WTO rules but hey, you can’t have everything.

Duties are 9% for wheat, 12% for maize and 14% for barley.

The bullish crop reports coming out of Ukraine, which will no doubt be helped by the end of then ban are based on uncorroborated announcements from ministries and government bodies that estimated yields and crop areas are up this year.

Crops do look very good at the moment but they always do in May and June and last year it was the weather conditions in late July and August that did for yields.

Plants are not showing signs of drought stress just yet but rain would be welcomed.

There is still a long way to go to harvest.

Kiev…we have a problem!

2011-05-19T14:47:00.001+03:00

I have been on a lot of farms lately – hence the slow blogging week – and one issue has consistently cropped up.

Every tractor, cultivator, sprayer and drill I have seen has either been set up incorrectly, missing parts or with bits just falling off.

Every time I questioned the tractor driver they have been blissfully unaware that there has been a problem with the kit they have been towing around for the last 1,000 odd hectares.

Make of that what you will.

Oilseed rape agronomy update

2011-05-12T18:11:00.000+03:00

Time to get back to some agronomy.

Walked some oilseed rape last week; moving into yellow bud and early flowering and pollen beetle just starting to emerge.

Other points of interest include;

possible sulphur or magnesium deficiency seen on some crops;

possible boron deficiency;

and late frost damage.

Doing business in Ukraine?

2011-05-12T16:42:00.000+03:00

Then you could do worse than check out the Business Ukraine website.

I like the recent piece from an international attorney on 10 legal pitfalls of doing business in Ukraine.

Pitfall No. 1: there are more than 10 pitfalls.

Probably a good idea to keep it away from your legal department or key investor as it will more than likely give them the heebie-jeebies.

Want to buy some wheat?

2011-05-12T15:40:00.000+03:00

Then pop over to my new pals at EuropeanGrain.com and they should be able to sort you right out, don't forget to mention my name.

If your in the market for 6KMT of wheat, 10KMT of maize (that's corn to the septic's) or 2KMT of sunflowers then drop me a line after harvest.

They don't trade in buckwheat.

My final word on the subject of buckwheat

2011-05-12T15:35:00.000+03:00

The ship load of buckwheat that arrived in Odessa from China last week cost $1,750/MT which is about $1,000/MT more than it should have cost.

Someone has made a shed load on the back of a much hyped story.

Enough!

It's been very dry...

2011-05-04T09:28:00.001+03:00

...and hot over most of Ukraine as witnessed by this photograph taken earlier in the week.

The upside is we might not need to worry about subsoiling.

Weather is now on the turn and light showers are being reported from most regions.

Whether there is enough to replenish the dry soil time will tell, in the meantime crops are not (yet) showing signs of drought stress but it won't be long.

The first batch of buckwheat has arrived!

2011-04-28T22:10:00.000+03:00

Hurrah! We can all go to bed with full bellies tonight; the first ship load of buckwheat has finally landed!

500MT of Chinese buckwheat has docked in Odessa and is being unloaded in to extra secure and triple guarded storage before being rationed out to the starving population.

That works out at about 11grams each so go easy, more is promised next week.

Buckwheat; is chasing the market the right policy?

2011-04-26T21:11:00.008+03:00

For the last eight months or so farmers, agronomists, investors and taxi drivers have all been telling me to grow buckwheat as the price is going through the roof.

That may well be, instinctively I have always felt the urge to pretty much do the opposite to what everyone else is doing.

If everyone is growing buckwheat on the back of promised high prices then my reaction is to leave them to it and the figures seem to back me up.

Ukraine’s buckwheat consumption stands at about 150,000MT.

In 2009 farmers grew 273,000HA and produced 189,00MT of the stuff; in 2010 planting was down to 215,000HA and they produced 133,700MT.

Last year planting was down but so was yield in the unprecedented heat and drought.

If this coming season we see the plantings the same as 2010 but yield are at 2009 levels then total buckwheat production will stand at just shy of 149,000MT.

That’s very close to domestic demand.

But we know the government is actively “encouraging” growers to plant the stuff so let’s assume plantings are up by say a conservative 10%, then production will at 163,700MT, well over domestic consumption.

There’s a fine line between shortage and surplus and state market mechanisms are generally just too blunt a tool to get the job right, ask the EU.

What is the potential output for Ukraine?

2011-04-26T14:16:00.004+03:00

There is much discussion about the agricultural potential for Ukraine but what is the reality behind the hype?

Premier Mykola Azarov told Inger Anderson, Vice President of the World Bank that “Ukraine can potentially grow over 100mn MT of grain.”

Is 100mn MT of grain technically possible in Ukraine?

Firstly you need to define what you mean by “grain.”

State statistics include maize (corn) and soya to come up with the all-encompassing and rather unhelpful category of “grains and leguminous crops.”

So when Premier Azarov states that Ukraine can produce 100mn MT of grain let’s assume he means “grains and leguminous crops.”

The average area of these crops grown over the last 20 years is 14.4 million hectares out of an average total cropped area of 27.7 million hectares.

There is 42 million hectares of arable land in Ukraine although I suspect some of this will be low potential.

To achieve an output of 100mn MT of grain would require a 52% increase in grain cropped land area and 77% increase in yield.

Increasing the cropped land area by 52% requires investment and a stable business environment and is therefore technically if not politically possible.

Is a 77% increase in yield likely?

As a scientist I would say yes, it is possible with targeted investment in appropriate seed, fertiliser, sprays, equipment and staffing.

But given the reality of the situation on the ground I would say it is a highly unlikely.

Everything needs to be fixed starting with the land, subsoil, soil fertility and pH; weeds, grass and perennial weeds; cultivation and planting equipment; fertiliser spreaders, fertiliser, pesticides and crop sprayers; staffing, staff training, environmental management and record keeping; harvesting logistics, security and storage. I could go on but I think you get the picture.

What is the potential for Ukrainian agriculture?

Realistically? A lot less than many will have you believe.

It's not all muddy boots you know

2011-04-20T15:34:00.000+03:00

I'm sitting in the Premier Palace Hotel after having arrived early for a meeting and pretty darn nice it is too.

Waited on attentively, Beethoven playing gently in the background, good coffee and a general nice ambience all make for a pleasant afternoon.

Crops in good condition?

2011-04-19T10:32:00.001+03:00

Now I am an optimistic kind of guy.

My glass is made from cut glass and half full of the purest mountain spring water so I don't mean to sound negative but here is some substance behind the current Ukrainian crop condition reports.

Reports are suggesting that the crops are in good condition which is true by and large.

Wheat has come through the winter in good condition and as sun and nitrogen start to work they look pretty as a picture.

But they always do in April, May and June, it's from then on that they can go pear shaped as we saw in last year's heat (and it was heat rather than the drought that reduced yield).

Winter oilseed rape falls in to two categories; those that received sufficient rain at establishment and have a good plant stand and those that didn't and will need re planting.

They need replanting because of weather conditions at establishment not the winter.

I keep reading about the harsh winter we have just had however the figures suggest otherwise.

Apart from a brief cold snap in February the temperatures have been above average and this can be seen in the field, even late sown wheat and small oilseed rape plants have survived.

So what do we learn from all these reports?

Not a great deal other than to treat news articles with caution, assume there is an agenda (even here) and gather information from as many sources as possible.

Buckwheat

2011-04-18T16:58:00.002+03:00

Buckwheat seems to have acquired somewhat of a following.

I mentioned buckwheat about two weeks back and how the local administration was "encouraging" farmers to plant more this year and how politicians really should butt out and leave business to people who understand it.

This seems to have instigated a spike in people accessing my blog after searching for "buckwheat"; people from all over but mainly India, the USA and even Alaska!

Always a pleasure to greet new visitors and the first from Alaska, Eagle River Alaska to be precise.

I will undertake some research in to buckwheat to find out why there is such an interest and report back.

Great Grain Robbery #2

2011-04-17T17:24:00.001+03:00

An interesting turn of events is currently taking place in Kiev to which I confess to being a little bit twitchy about.

Kyiv Post have published an interview with the agriculture and food minister, Mykola Prysyazhnyuk (here) in which KP refer to the "Great Grain Robbery" and he avoids answering any questions regarding export restrictions and quotas.

On Friday KP publish an article in the Business Section by Morgan Williams (here) in which he refers to the "Great Grain Robbery".

Business Sense and KP Editor in Chief is one Brian Bonner.

News is emerging that Brian Bonner has been dismissed after refusing to remove the article and KP staff are on strike demanding his reinstatement.

Why am I twitchy?

If you google "great grain robbery Ukraine" it takes you directly to my comments on this blog on 16th March (here).

Was that a knock on the door?

Growth stage explained

2011-04-14T22:36:00.005+03:00

I have had a few requests to explain the meaning of cereal growth stages, something I spent years doing when I used to teach the subject but as a quick reminder here it is, so pay attention at the back!

GS 30 ear at 1cm; dissect the plant and look for the ear which admittedly is difficult to spot but with some care and practice becomes easier to identify.

If it is less that 1cm from the base of the plant then your not at GS30, if it is more than 1cm then your in business.

GS31 first node detectable; again disect the plant and look for the ear and the node, if you can spot the difference and the gap between them is more than 1cm your at GS31 and you win a prize.

Winter wheat growth stage update

2011-04-14T18:12:00.001+03:00

Just back from looking at some wheat in the west and here it is.

All sitting up well at pseudo stem erect (GS30); make sure all the nitrogen is on in the next ten to fourteen days.

Why cultivate once...

2011-04-14T18:05:00.000+03:00

...when you can spend all day hurtling around the fields having the time of your life?

I saw this (sadly all too typical) field a couple of days back which I presume was spring barley although at the time it was too wet to get out of the car and check.

Over cultivation before rain not only cost a packet but has encouraged the seedbed to slump down good and tight, all it needs now is the sun to come out and bake it hard, lovely stuff.

Weather update

2011-04-10T08:45:00.001+03:00

A quick look at soil temperature this Sunday morning shows a slight drop in recent days; currently around 5 degrees.

Forecast through to middle of the week is highs of 10 and lows of 2 with rain which will keep soil temperature cool.

Ukraine and an EU free trade agreement

2011-04-09T11:07:00.001+03:00

The Ukrainian President is quoted as saying "Ukraine wants to finalize the free trade deal with the EU this year, a move that would make joining the ex-Soviet trading bloc impossible."

Some think this makes it clear that Ukraine prefers a free-trade deal with the EU over Russia.

I would suggest you wait and see what the Ukraine government does rather than what they say they will do.

The Storks are back in town...

2011-04-07T12:37:00.000+03:00

...or at least the fields.

Actually they have been back for a couple of weeks in the south but are starting to move up country.

Storks or Cranes? I can never remember.

Festival of fire

2011-04-07T12:32:00.004+03:00

About this time of the year, right across Ukraine we enter the season of the elements, celebrated by a four week Festival of Fire.

The essential idea of the Festival of Fire is to set fire to just about anything then bugger off and leave it to burn out of control with no regard for wildlife or road users.

I have asked why this done and the usual answer accompanied with a shrug of the shoulders is to tidy up.

T1 Options

2011-04-07T12:12:00.001+03:00

Choices in Ukraine are fairly limited but any azole fungicides would be the preferred option.

Independent 2010 dose response curve trials show Brutus and Seguris to give the best response at half rate although as far as I am aware none of these are available in Ukraine.

However they do both contain epoxiconazole which can be found in mixtures in Ukraine.

Cereal diseases

2011-04-07T11:48:00.000+03:00

Wheat and barley starting to reach Growth Stage 30.

In the south of Ukraine we are seeing the earliest cereals reach the critical pseudo stem erect stage (GS30) with some individual plants moving in to GS31, ear at one centimetre.

Why is this crucial?

Two reasons, firstly you need to make sure all your nitrogen is on by this time and secondly it is the growth stage to start targeting T1 fungicide treatment if you are going to apply a T1.

T1 means first treatment and will be important this season because we are seeing a lot of septoria on the lower leaves, sufficient to represents a significant risk to justify a T1.

Business award of the week...

2011-04-06T14:53:00.000+03:00

...goes to Narodne Taxi.

I use this taxi company from time to time, they have just dropped me off at home and I have to commend them on a fabulous, customer focused service.

They give me hope that it can be done in Ukraine.

They've taken the basic taxi business, looked at it from the customers eyes and developed a top notch service that other companies would do well to note.

You call them, they phone you back so you don't have to pay for the call, within minutes they text you the time, colour, make of vehicle and price, the taxi turns up on time, clean, in good condition, with all its doors and seatbelts, the driver is sober, courteous and helpful and they give you a discount card to boot.

I am impressed; I would have no hesitation recommending them, well done Narodne Taxi,

Cold weather continued...

2011-04-05T16:42:00.002+03:00

Further analysis of the weather data shows that this year's cumulative total temperature from 1st January (excluding minus readings) is 146.5 degrees compared to the long term average of 67.5 degrees.

Or 60% of March was at or above the average.

Conclusive proof then that this year is actually warmer than normal!

Except this is one data set for a country the size of France but it does demonstrate that you need to be careful when reading headlines.

My contacts in the west are telling me the weather is lovely there and cereal planting is going ahead apace.

Cold weather delays spring planting...or does it?

2011-04-05T16:07:00.000+03:00

UkrAgroConsult are lowering its harvest forecast due to winterkill, late spring sowings and a lack of combines to bring the harvest in.

May all be true and probably is but worth re-visiting the weather data to see how late this spring actually is.

The records up to today suggest soil temperatures are bang on average for the time of year.

Soil temperature has been near to or above the long term average for most of March.

We like to bring you the detail behind the headline.

Buckwheat

2011-04-05T14:12:00.000+03:00

A shortage and subsequent high price of the Ukraine staple, buckwheat has encouraged the government to encourage growers to grow more this year.

I'm not sure how this works but it seems central planning hasn't entirely gone away and free market rules don't apply.

One thing I have learnt in all my years is not to go chasing markets; come the buckwheat harvest when the price is on the floor who will pay for that mistake?

Website thanks

2011-04-05T00:05:00.003+03:00

We had a good response to the website (re) launch.

Thanks for all the comments, recommendations and ideas. We will incorporate some of the suggestions over the coming weeks and working on the glitches and ironing out the errors.

Please keep the ideas and comments coming in and once again a big thanks to all.

Agronomy Ukraine Website

2011-04-03T22:03:00.002+03:00

We’ve re-launched the website this weekend.

Why not pop over and have a look while it’s quiet first thing on Monday morning before the boss comes in.

Mind you if you are caught you can say it is legitimate research unlike some of those specialist websites you have been known to take a peek at when the office is empty late on a Friday afternoon.

We will be adding to the site over the coming weeks and appreciate any comments or suggestions that you may have.

Oilseed rape latest

2011-04-03T21:42:00.003+03:00

I estimate between 20 to 30% of oilseed rape will be replanted this spring.

A combination of dry weather at planting and a lack of snow cover has taken its toll.

I have seen many crops looking like this photo which was taken last week.

There are plants there but they are small and low in numbers.

While some growers will re-plant with spring oilseed rape it is likely that most will opt for spring cereals, maize or sunflowers depending on what herbicides, if any, have already been applied.

They think it's all over...not yet

2011-04-03T20:59:00.002+03:00

The government has posted a notice saying that grain export quotas are to be extended until the end of June.

There was some confusion about the quotas being lifted on Friday but normal service has it seems been restored.

Not much surprise there.

Business development to enjoy full government support

2011-04-01T08:12:00.003+03:00

Investors reacted with overwhelming support to the news that Ukraine introduced legislation today to make business a free, transparent, fair and open process.

A spokesperson from the Ukrainian government said that "it is time for change; the government recognises it's failings in the past and is now here to make amends and will assist business development for the benefit of all citizens".

On other pages, the Italian spaghetti crop is hit by a late frost.