Tuesday, 11 July 2017

USDA in Moscow increase Russian grain production forecast to 113mmt

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Moscow increased its total Russian grain production forecast by 3mmt to 113mmt.

This would make it the second highest grain crop in Russia’s post-Soviet period, second only to last years’ record grain crop of 119.4mmt.

FAS forecasts wheat at 68.0mmt (up 2.0mmt on their April forecast) and barley at 16.5mmt (up 0.5mmt).

The reason for the increased wheat and barley forecast is based on the reported good condition of the winter crops, which in the case of wheat is 65-70% of the total wheat crop, although winter barley is only 10-11% of the total barley crop.

The reported good condition comes from the Russian State Statistical Service (Rosstat) and as far as I can tell, no one from FAS has been out of the city limits to have a look at a crop.

They peg corn at 15.5mmt (up 0.2mmt) based on increased plantings; rye is 2.6mmt and oats 4.5mmt, both unchanged from April.

FAS forecasts grain exports in MY 2017/2018 at 38.0mmt, approximately 1.0mmt higher than their estimates for grain exports for last year which was the highest grain export estimate in Russian history.

The exports forecast include 28.0mmt of wheat, 3.3mmt of barley, 5.7mmt of corn, and 0.86mmt of other grains and pulses.

The attached picture is of our May/June team discussing the condition of crops in a field of corn in Novomikhalyovskoye, Stavropol Krai, Russia, who then went on to cover 2,500km crop touring through Russia and Ukraine.

Just saying.