Thursday, 18 May 2017

USDA forecast lower Russian wheat crop

USDA have published their latest forecast for Russian wheat at 67.0mmt, down 5.5mmt from last year’s record output although it would still be the second-highest wheat harvest on record.

Back in March, after we travelled 1,200km across Russia, we rated the post winter crop to be in very good condition with no significant winter losses and pegged the yield at 64.7mmt with an export potential of 28mmt.

The USDA 2017/18 harvested area estimate is 27.5 million hectares, up 0.5 million hectares from last year and yield is forecast at 2.44mt/ha, 9% down on last year’s record but 5% above the five-year average.

Winter wheat accounts for around half of the country’s total wheat area and the latest spring wheat plantings are running at 4.3 million hectares or 30% of the anticipated final hectares.

In ten days we will tour the Russian grain belt to make our latest crop assessments and update our yield forecast, our findings and dedicated Twitter account are available to crop tour subscribers so be sure to sign up if you are looking for an independent, muddy boot yield assessments.

There’s only so much crop analysis you can do sitting in an office staring at a computer.

Email blackseacroptour@gmail and I’ll reply with information on our tours and how to subscribe to access the results.