Tuesday, 31 January 2017

Russian and Ukraine wheat at risk from cold

Moscow based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) are reporting that a cold spell expected between January 27 and February 4 pose a risk to winter wheat in parts of Russia's southern regions of Rostov and Krasnodar.

Temperatures are expected to fall in Rostov and Krasnodar regions to -17C (1.4F) where the area is not currently protected by snow, according to the head of IKAR, Dmitry Rylko.

IKAR estimate upwards of 0.5mha in Rostov and 0.4 hectares in the Krasnodar are at risk.

Russian farmers planted 17.4mha of winter grains for the 2017 crop, up from 16.3mha the year before and both Krasnodar and Rostov are important wheat producing areas.

The latest satellite images seem to show some snow free areas although my contacts in the region are telling me there is generally sufficient snow about at the moment so I'm not sure how big an issue this might actually be.

Across the border in Ukraine, however, and the satellite images clearly show a snow free area across the southern regions of Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Crimea which on the face of it looks like a much bigger problem than in Russia.

I think we need to keep a close eye on the thermometer over the coming days and weeks.