Friday, 13 January 2017

Latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

If I was a farmer chasing markets and I used WASDE numbers as a guide I’d be tempted to drop my wheat area for 2016/17 which is too late for the winter crop but not spring plantings, increase corn and spring barley, drop sunflowers and up soya.

An alternative strategy is to assume that's what everyone else will do and therefore do the exact opposite.

Probably best not to go chasing markets.

Develop your strategy, form a plan, execute in a timely and accurate manner and hope it works sufficiently well to keep farming through to next year.

Anyway, here are some highlights from the report;
  • U.S. 2016/17 wheat ending stocks are up and projected to reach the highest level since the late 1980’s while this seasons winter wheat plantings have dropped 1.51mha year on year to 13.11mha, the lowest since 1909.
  • Global wheat supplies for 2016/17 are raised 1.3mmt on a production increase that is partially offset by lower beginning stocks.  The largest increases are for Argentina, Russia, and the EU. 
  • Global exports are raised 1.2mmt led by increases for Argentina, Australia, and the EU, partly offsetting is a reduction in Canadian exports so far this year.
  • Global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.1mmt with increased food use partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. 
  • With total global supplies increasing faster than use, ending stocks are increased 1.2mmt to a new record of 253.3mmt
  • US 2016/17 corn outlook is lower production, reduced feed and residual use, increased corn used to produce ethanol, and smaller stocks. 
  • Global corn supplies are down 1.27mmt driven by falling US stocks.
  • Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 1.7mmt lower.
  • Russia barley production is lowered based on the latest government statistics. 
  • Argentina barley production is lowered on dryness during crop heading and grain fill in November and December.
  • U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is estimated down 1.5mmt from last month.
  • The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include higher production and exports compared to last month. 
  • Oilseed production is projected up 0.1 million tons to 554.8 million on increases for cottonseed, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed partly offset by reductions for soybeans and peanuts. 
  • Soybean production is lowered 0.2 million tons as increases for Brazil and China are offset by declines in Bolivia, Uruguay, and the United States. 
  • The largest change to production is a 2.0-million-ton increase to 104.0 million for Brazil, where beneficial rain has resulted in improved yield prospects. 
  • Global oilseed trade is projected at 160.3 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month. 
  • Global oilseed stocks are projected at 93.7 million tons, down 0.9 million, mainly on lower soybean stocks for the United States.