Thursday, 10 November 2016

Latest WASDE Black Sea report highlights

Latest WASDE report is out, here’s some highlights.

WHEAT:  Projected 2016/17 production for Black Sea remains unchanged at Russia 72.0mmt; Kazakhstan 16.5mmt; Ukraine 27mmt.

The largest beginning stocks change is for Ukraine on expectations of lower food use offsetting higher feeding. 

Global use for 2016/17 is raised 0.8 million tons led by increases in feed use for Ukraine, Canada, and Russia but partially offset by reduced food use in Ukraine. 

As global supplies are rising faster than use, ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons and remain record large. 

COARSE GRAINS:  Projected 2016/17 production for Black Sea and FSU-12 increases 3.1mmt to 168.5mmt with FSU-12 now 90.4mmt; Russia 40.0mmt; Ukraine 38.1mmt.

Corn, projected 2016/17 production for FSU-12 and Ukraine has increased 2.5mmt with FSU-12 gaining an extra 1.5mmt to 45.5mmt and Ukraine gaining an additional 1.0mmt to 27.0mmt.

Ukraine corn production is raised based on near-record yields reported by the government and Russia corn production is higher this month with a projected record yield, based on harvest results to date. 

(Latest official figures place the Ukraine corn harvest 70% complete and the Russian corn harvest 64%; based on the amount of standing corn we saw on last week’s crop tour would suggest these figure are perhaps wishful reporting).

Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine and Russia.