Friday, 21 October 2016

Russia’s 2016/17 grain crop the largest post USSR

The USDA Moscow office has just released their latest summary report on Russia's 2016/17 grain production.

In it they forecasts Russia’s total grain production for 2016/17 to be 114.6mmt which will be the largest post USSR crop.

Their forecast is made up of wheat at 72.0mmt, which will be the largest wheat crop in Russian history, barley at 18.0mmt, corn 13.0mmt and the balance of 11.6mmt made up from other grain crops and pulses.

Total grain exports are forecast at 38mmt, including 29.0mmt of wheat, 4.0mmt of barley, 4.0mmt of corn and 1.0mmt of other grains and pulses.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture October forecast puts the 2016/2017 crop at 115 to 116mmt and state that given this high amount of crop the “comfortable” volume of grain exports will be 40mmt.

As of October 12, 2016 the wheat harvest stood at 26.8mha (98%) and reached 74.7mmt which is 20% and 8% more than on the same date last year, respectively.

There is no comprehensive data on the quality of the wheat crop, but industry analysts consider that overall the quality of wheat is worse than last year, especially in the Central region where, due to heavy rains in July and August, the wheat crop lost protein.

However, they go on to say, given the overall size of the wheat crop, the quantity of good quality milling grain will not be less than last year.

Barley harvest stands at 18.5mmt (16.5mmt on the same date last year) from 7.9mha (97%).

Corn stands at 5.6mmt from 1.04mha (36%) which compares to 6.9mmt and 1.4mha on the same date last year.

The corn harvest this year is running late and what the weather does over the next few weeks will be crucial in determining how much of the outstanding crop is gathered in before conditions stop play, until the spring that is.

Industry analysts maintain that corn can be harvested for a much longer period than other grains which is true but up to a point.