Thursday, 7 January 2016

Black Sea weather view

The market might not consider current weather in the Black Sea region to be a problem but there are plenty that do.  Here are a few (paraphrased) soundbites from this last week:

Snow cover across Ukraine and parts of Russia is lower than the "magic number" of 10 cm for sufficient cold protection…this should not be an issue for at least the next two weeks as temperatures look to remain above dangerous levels…long range models indicate the chances for a deep freeze toward the end of January.

Lack of snow in the north-eastern and south-western regions of Belarus complicates the agrometeorological conditions. Lowering of air temperature to 14-15°C below zero and absence of snow cover may damage plants of the least frost-resistant crop – winter rapeseed.

Head of grain processing enterprise, Stavropol, Russia
30% of all planted areas of the grain in our oblast are in unfavourable condition…it will be necessary to replant winter wheat throughout at least 20% of the general planted areas.

Head of flour milling enterprise, Tambov, Russia
65% of winter wheat areas are in good and satisfactory condition…according to our agronomists, it will be necessary to replant at least 25-30% of winter wheat areas.

Head of grain processing enterprise, Saratov, Russia
If we estimate losses, we should note that nearly 30% of winter wheat areas were damaged…according to our preliminary data, replanting of winter wheat will total nearly 30-50%.

Zoe Shoesmith, grain trader, Frontier Agriculture
Overall, the supply and demand picture is still the main driver for wheat markets, but there are some weather issues around the world which will be closely watched, including cold weather in the Black Sea regions and the possible impact of any winterkill.

Joel Durkin, Business and data analyst, Farmers Guardian
Impact of winterkill in the Black Sea region could affect markets and should be closely monitored.

Farm Credit Canada
Weather in Russia & Ukraine could lower wheat production & have a positive impact on demand for Canadian wheat.

BBC Weather
Eastern Europe is normally cold at this time of year - but last night's temperatures were exceptional (down to -23C).