Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Ukraine, autumn 2015 Crop Tour

Ukraine wheat exports account for around 10% of the global wheat trade so crop condition plays an important role in determining world market prices.

The news out of Ukraine is that winter grain plantings are down 11% on last year and what has been planted is struggling in dry conditions with nearly 40% not yet germinated and 20% in poor condition.

The head of Ukraine's state weather center has said “the situation is very bad, we still have four huge regions where crops are in very poor condition".

Unsurprisingly analysts are cutting 2016 forecasts to between 14 and 18mmt, down from last year’s 25mmt.

However it might not be all bad news as recent rains, albeit light, will have helped and as temperatures hold up it’s possible the situation might not necessarily be as negative as reported.

Outside the dry south and eastern regions the situation is more upbeat with soil moisture and warm temperatures encouraging good crop development.

The best thing to do then is to go and have a look and report back.

As such I will be drive through Ukraine to assess the condition of autumn planted grain and oilseed rape crops and carry out rapid and detailed appraisals to give an unbiased and independent report with comments, observations and photographs.

Drop me a line if you would like to subscribe (£100) and receive a copy of the tour report and have access to the tour twitter account.

Also let me know if you would like to see previous reports from last season.