Tuesday, 26 May 2015

Latest Russian spring sowing update

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture spring sowing currently stand at 36.9mha or 71% of the plan (39.4mha in 2014).

They then confuse the picture, at least for me they do by saying this includes 22.1mha of spring grains. 

I have tried every combination of what may or may not be included as a spring and I can’t get it to balance with 22.1mha, if anyone can shed any light on what I’m doing wrong I’d be happy to hear it.

I don’t have previous seasons numbers to hand but 71% complete in the last week of May seems low and considering it’s now hot and dry what is going in now will have an increasingly hard time.

Talking of hot, winter cereals are coming in to ear and flowering which is starting to look like it will coincide with these very high daytime temperatures we are getting at the moment.  High temperatures at flowering will, amongst other negative effects, reduce the number of grain per ear and thus the overall yield.

In my experience heat in the FSU has a greater negative impact on yields than the cold but we persist in our view that Russia is in a state of deep freeze and winter kill is a big issue.

It’s getting so warm now I have had to start running in the mornings to avoid the heat of the day.

For the record and for what they are worth here are the Ministry of Agricultures latest spring sowings by region and crop.

Crimea (contentious) 207kha (97%); Southern 5.3mha (90%); North Caucasus 1.5mha (87%); Central 8.1mha (93%); Volga 11.9mha (76%); North-West 292kha (62%); Siberia7.5mha (57%); Far East 722kha (43%); Urals 1.4mha (32%).

Spring wheat 8.2mha or 63% (9.3mha in 2014); spring barley 6.5mha or 79% (7.5mha in 2014); corn 2.5mha or 88% (2.4mha ion 2014); sunflower 5.6mha or 84% (6.2mha in 2014); soybeans 1.2mha or 59% (1.1mha in 2014); spring oilseed rape 654.8kha or 71% (755.5kha in 2014).; rice 170.3kha or 80% (164.7kha in 2014); flax 37.2kha or 70% (39kha in 2014); sugar beet 993kha 101% (906kha in 2014); potatoes 304.9kha or 81% (195.7kha in 2014); vegetables 142kha or 77% (83.7kha in 2014).

To summarise that little lot; spring cereals, spring oilseed rape and sunflowers are down 11-15% on last year, corn and soya are up slightly at 4% and 8% respectively but the stand out figures for me at this stage are potatoes and vegetables up 40%.

See yesterday’s blog.