Wednesday, 11 February 2015

USDA raises stock estimates and prices fall

Yesterday the USDA raised its estimate of world wheat stockpiles by 0.9% to 197.85mmt.

Both Chicago wheat and corn prices fell after the report despite concerns about shipments from Ukraine and Russia.

Might be a bit hasty as what I'm hearing is the Russian ministry of agriculture are considering increasing the export tax rate which came in to force at the beginning of February and extending the length of time it will be in place.

Meanwhile Ukraine’s ministry of agriculture has started making much stronger comments about taking action if grain exports exceed limits previously agreed during a period of much softer and inclusive announcements.

The Russian story is at the moment a rumour but is entirely possible; the Ukraine situation is highly probable as traders will look to take advantage of the devaluation in the country's hryvnia currency regardless of any MoU.

To date Ukraine has exported 22mmt of grain, including 8.7mmt of wheat, 9.2mmt of maize and 3.8mmt of barley.