Wednesday, 10 December 2014

SigmaBleyzer macroeconomic situation report on Ukraine

SigmaBleyzer have released their latest macroeconomic situation report on Ukraine, the full transcript can be found here but below are a few highlights.

The Ukrainian currency (Hryvnia) continued to depreciate, falling to an historic low of UAH 16.05 per USD.

At the beginning of November, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) abandoned an unofficial peg of UAH 12.95 per USD,

A brief period of stability during October was achieved by the NBU forking out $1.4 billion with international reserves now at a ten year low of $12.6 billion.

Anticipated provision of sizeable foreign financial aid should contain Hryvnia depreciation beyond UAH 17 per USD.

The decline of agri exports to Russia has been mitigated to some extent by the growing exports to the EU thanks to unilateral trade preferences for Ukraine, extended by the EU until the end of 2015.

However due to the asymmetry in the structure of agro and food exports of Ukraine to Russia and the EU, exports to the EU are dominated by grains and edible oil (and some meat and dairy products) with fresh produce not being able to find a suitable alternative.

The problem with fresh produce is that Ukraine cannot achieve the quality standards or at least the necessary compliance records required for EU export.