Wednesday, 19 November 2014

Latest USDA GAIN reports

Ukraine’s grain exports are growing at moderate pace.  In the new marketing year 2014/15, by mid-October, Ukraine has exported over 6 million metric tons of wheat and over one million tons of barley.  Concurrently, the 2013/14 corn marketing year is approaching completion with over 18 million tons already exported.  Grain stocks are high due to a large production, but will likely deplete as the trade rallies on the expectation of another large corn harvest in 2014/15. Domestic grain prices at the start of the new season were lower than in the previous year and are expected to maintain low throughout the season.  Winter crops have been planted in favourable fall weather conditions.

Based on the officially reported data on grain harvest progress, FAS/Moscow increased its forecast of Russia’s total grain crop in MY 2014/15 by 2mmt to 101mmt.  The forecasted crop includes 57.5mmt of wheat, 19mmt of barley, 11.5mmt of corn, and almost 13mmt of other grains and pulses.  Given these crop volumes and the volatility of rouble exchange rate Russia may export 28mmt of grain, including 21mmt of wheat, 4mmt of barley, 2.5mmt of corn, and from 0.5 to 0.8mmt of other grains and pulses.

Kazakhstan’s 2014 grain harvest is lower than last year, with the FAS/Astana estimate for wheat production at 13.0mmt, down from last year’s 13.9mmt.  FAS/Astana estimates wheat exports in the 2014/15 marketing year at 6.0mmt, down 1.5mmt from last year but still far below the levels of 2011/12 of nearly 12mmt.  Delays in harvesting, and onset of rain and snow during the harvest resulted in lower production figures and high moisture content.  These factors are also expected to negatively impact Kazakhstan's exports.