Friday, 27 April 2012

The rise and fall of oilseed rape

A killer combination of cold winter and dry spring in Europe has reduced estimates for wheat and in particular oilseed rape.  Not so in western Ukraine where the crop is looking extremely good.

But there's not as much of it as there used to be. 

A quick look at the production figures shows the rise and steady fall of oilseed rape in Ukraine from 2005-06 when just over 100kha was grown to a peak in 2008-09 when more than a million hectares produced 2.7mmt. 

But why the decline thereafter?

A couple of difficult growing seasons, high cost of production and a lack of technical knowledge is in my considered opinion why we have seen the crop fall out of favour.

But could 2012 be a turn around season?  Low European output will push the price up, Ukraine is set for a good harvest, money will be made and everyone will get excited about oilseed rape again. 

Will 2012 planting rise on the back of it?  I think so yes.