I haven’t had time to analyse the figures in detail yet (still reeling from events on the pitch at the weekend – what was all that about?), but here are my impressions of plantings this autumn all the same.
A lot of wheat has been planted late which will increase the risk of winter kill and what does make it through the winter will be lower yielding because it was planted late.
What has gone in is growing well and there are plenty of good looking crops around the regions.
Oilseed rape planting is reported at being 20% down on last year and many growers held off sowing until rain came which has resulted in 38kha being planted in the first week of October.
We finished planting by early September which I feel is the cut off point but as the soil was bone dry emergence was delayed to early October anyway.
This has resulted in small plants which will be at greater risk of winter kill resulting in a further reduction in the 2011 area. What is in the ground will probably yield less as it was late planted/emerged although rape does have better compensatory powers than wheat.
Too early to start predicting supplies for 2011 but if pushed I would say we are unlikely to see bumper cereal or rape yields next year.