Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Hope over reality

According to Leonid Kozachenko of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, Ukraine could produce 105MMT of grain.

That’s “could” as in Liverpool "could" still finish in the top five. They could but it’s not going to happen, nope, not this year, no way.

There is about 42MHA of arable land in Ukraine with about half of it down to cereals. The average yield bumps along at around 2MT/HA which would give a national yield of 42MMT (last year it was 46MMT, this year looks like being 38.5MMT).

If Ukraine was to increase output to 105MMT and assuming a similar area of cereals was planted then the average yield would have to rise to 5MT/HA.

That’s an increase of 150%.

Even the best producers are struggling to get over four tons so I fail to see how Ukraine would ever achieve an average of 5MT/HA on 21MHA.