Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Ukraine warns over winterkill losses in wheat

Not sure what to make of this latest item in Agrimoney. “Ukraine has warned of a deeper-than-expected drop in its wheat harvest this year, signalling that winterkill may have wrought worse damage to the Black Sea grain powerhouse than analysts have factored in” they report.

With wheat coming in to ear it seems a bit late in the day to decide that winterkill levels are now an issue. They might just be trying to talk up the market of course which is fine with me as we will have 4,000 tons of the stuff to shift come harvest.

I reckon the USDA just about nail it when they say "various forecasts over the past two months have estimated winterkill at anywhere from 3-30%". In other words no one knows. Unfortunately they then go and blow any creditability by saying “many farmers have taken to sowing winter crops late, to narrow the window before winter in which they are susceptible to insect pests and disease, and so enable savings on pesticide bills”. Yeh, right.